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# MGT 455 WEEK 3 CHAPTER 4 PROBLEM SET

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Complete problems 4.1, 4.3, 4.5, 4.25, and 4.27 in the textbook.
Submit one Excel file. Put each problem result on a separate sheet in your file.
4-1. Bill Fennema, president of Fennema Hospitality, has
developed the tasks, durations, and predecessor relationships in
the following table for building new motels. Draw the AON net
work and answer the questions that follow

a) What is the expected (estimated) time for activity C?
b) What is the variance for activity C?
c) Based on the calculation of estimated times, what is the critical path?
d) What is the estimated time of the critical path?
e) What is the activity variance along the critical path?
f) What is the probability of completion of the project before week 36?C
4.3 Refer to Problem 4.2. Develop a forecast for years 2

through 12 using exponential smoothing with a = .4 and a fore

cast for year 1 of 6. Plot your new forecast on a graph with the

actual data and the naive forecast. Based on a visual inspection,
which forecast is better’?

The carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance.

The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year

The miles friven during the past 5 years are as follows:

Year
Mileage

1
3000

2
4000

3
3400

4
3800

5
3700

a.
Forecast the mileage for the next year (6th year) using a 2 year moving average

(more)
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